Comment: Investor demand and spot commodity prices

Tilton et al. claim in their article “Investor demand and spot commodity prices” to show that “investor demand can be pushing up a commodity's price even when investor stocks are falling.” In the present comment, it is argued that in both the cases described by Tilton et al., investors are supplying the market, putting physical material into it, rather than adding to demand. Thus, the reasoning by Tilton et al. is not concerned with the phenomenon referred to in the traditional theory, where, in the absence of changes in demand and supply fundamentals, prices rise as a result of increased investor demand for futures contracts.     

生态旅游的可持续性评价模型研究——以九寨沟景区为例

在生态环境脆弱区域开展旅游活动，其发展目标必须是可持续的。而生态旅游可持续性的标准因不同旅游区（点）或处在不同的时间段会产生差异，使用评价指标体系的方法可以反映出并弥补这种差异给可持续性评价带来的影响。以位于岷江上游的世界自然遗产地九寨沟景区为例，使用主观方法分析资源、社区和旅游三大利益相关者在生态旅游可持续性中的关系，建立生态旅游地可持续性评价模型的框架。使用德尔菲法确定相应的评价指标；通过对当地居民和旅游管理部门的访谈和旅游者问卷调查来探察利益相关者间的关系；根据访谈和调查结果对模型评价结果进行验证。研究以九寨沟景区为案例，评价模型的构建为生态旅游地的可持续性管理提供了一种主观与客观相结合的评价工具，并可以推广到其他景区。     

面向粮食产量空间化的多元回归分析模型中的两个关键问题探讨

为比较不同区域尺度变量对模型拟合效果的影响,在全国不分区和分区两种情况下,分别基于县级和地市级两个区域尺度上的样本构建粮食产量与水田、水浇地、旱地面积之间的多元线性回归模型,结果显示,用地市级数据作分析样本比用县级数据作分析样本好,分区建模比不分区建模效果好。因此,将全国划分为7个区,以地市级数据作为区域尺度的变量,在区域、栅格、亚栅格三个尺度上探讨变量（因变量、自变量）尺度和常数项取值这两个因素对模型应用的影响。得到以下结论：1）基于区域尺度样本构建的多元回归模型,如果常数项不为0,则不能用于空间化计算;如果常数项为0,则可以用于空间化计算;2）基于栅格尺度样本构建的多元回归模型,不论常数项是否为0,均可应用于空间化计算;3）基于亚栅格尺度样本构建的多元回归模型,不论其常数项是否为0,也均可用于空间化计算,但需要将计算结果乘以一个系数,该系数等于栅格单元面积与亚栅格单元面积的比值。上述结论对其他类型的统计数据空间化具有指导和参考价值。     

抽穗期低温对杂交晚粳宁67A／K1722结实率的影响

利用人工气候箱研究了抽穗期低温对杂交晚粳新组合宁67A/K1722开花量、包颈率及结实率的影响。结果表明：低温使抽穗速度明显变慢，开花量减少，包颈率呈现上升趋势，不同温度处理对结实率的影响不同，17℃与21℃处理间差异极显著，而19℃与21℃间差异不显著，不同时期处理及不同处理天数（3d,5d,7d和12d）间结实率差异不显著，表明该组合对抽穗期低温的耐受力较强，对抽穗期耐低温的鉴定指标问题进行了讨论。     

四川省农村环境空气污染源分布及其对自动监测点位设置影响的研究

将四川省农村地区分成平原和浅丘区、小起伏山地和高丘区、高山峡谷区三种类型区域。利用GIS软件,将四川省划分网格,分别统计每个网格中的工业废气污染点源数量和主要交通线路长度,得出四川省工业废气污染点源密度分级图和四川省主要公路密度分布图,以及结合农村污染面源的情况分析,总结出农村区域的主要污染密度分布类型。结果表明,在一定区域范围内,农村平原和浅丘区的工业源、交通源、农村面源分布均匀;高丘区、小起伏山区、高山峡谷区的污染源分布均具有明显的地理分布特性,山间平地和山谷台地的污染源分布密度高;根据四川省污染源分布规律给农村空气自动监测布点提供了指导。     

化工园区地下水环境状况调查监测布点研究

借鉴环境风险源目标管理的理念,按照“分区、分类、分级”监测的原则,建立了化工园区地下水环境状况调查监测布点方法体系,并以某化工园区为示例展开应用研究。结果显示,该方法能对化工园区不同区域、不同类型、不同级别的地下水污染源构建差异化监测网络,解决化工园区地下水污染多元化监测布点问题,可为化工园区地下水环境状况调查监测布点方案的拟定或优化调整提供工作参考。     

特长隧道风仓接力通风关键参数及其效果研究

通过长斜井进入正洞施工的特长隧道,往往面临独头通风距离过长、工作面风量不足等问题,造成污染物难以在规定时间排出洞外。以衢宁铁路鹫峰山隧道风仓接力施工通风为依托,采用数值模拟方法研究了风仓长度、隔板长度及风机布置方式对轴流风机通风效率的影响,分析了原压入式通风和风仓接力通风洞内CO运移特性。结果表明,风仓长度从10 m增至25 m时,轴流风机通风效率大幅提高,风仓长度大于25 m时,对轴流风机通风效率的影响不大。设置中隔板会影响空气在风仓内的分流并产生较多旋流,从而降低风机通风效率;轴流风机远离斜井端对称布置,风仓内部风流的引流速度和引流范围最大,风流运动路径最优,通风效率最高。由于压入式通风受限于斜井断面尺寸及现场布置方式,当通风距离超过3 000 m后,无法满足洞内作业环境规定的条件。在正洞与斜井交叉部位设置密封的风仓,形成接力通风,能大幅度延长通风距离,提高通风效率,改善洞内空气质量。     

基于人的认知可靠性模型(HCR)的接车进路办理诊断时间的研究

接发列车作业事故在铁路运输事故中占有相当大的比重。为减少接车作业事故的发生,合理制定车站接车进路办理时的诊断时间是保证接车作业安全的关键。针对车站采用写实法查定时具有较大随意性的问题,提出采用人的认知可靠性(HCR)模型,根据人因失误概率计算接车作业诊断时间的方法,并在自动闭塞区段通过模拟机实验进行了验证。结果表明,HCR模型确定的诊断时间与人因失误之间的关系与写实法的测定数据具有良好的符合性;作业人员的训练水平对诊断时间有较大的影响;利用该模型,根据作业人员的训练水平与可接受的人因失误概率,可以确定接车进路办理的最佳诊断时间,或对写实法测定的诊断时间进行订正。     

Developing and validating a scientific model for exploring safe work practices in interdisciplinary teams

Health research literature on quality and safety in recent years has pointed to a need to explore the characteristics of interdisciplinary team work unique to the health care sector and the particular organization. The literature also has identified a need for scientific models that explore and integrate existing findings concerning team dynamics. In this article, I attempt to address these concerns by developing and validating a scientific model for exploring safe work practices of interdisciplinary OR teams. Specifically, existing health research literature on quality and safety is reviewed to identify and incorporate various team-related aspects into dimensions of the proposed model. To further validate the model, I conduct an ethnographic study of safe work practices within an interdisciplinary OR setting. I find that safe work practices can be viewed as a product of the individual’s and team’s ability to draw on and combine explicit and tacit knowledge repertoires, which again is a product of the particular inner and outer structural conditions of a system. While the findings add their own unique distinctiveness to the scientific model, the findings also compare to the existing aspects and dimensions of the model. I conclude that the fit of the empirical data to the model improves the validity of the model, and also the potential application of the model in ethnographic research within different medical and/or team settings.     

A safety self-management intervention for mining operations

PROBLEM: This quasi-experimental field study examined the efficacy of a safety self-management process to increase safety-related work practices in mining operations. METHODS: After a 7-week baseline, 15 miners participated in a safety self-management training and education presentation. The participants in a prebehavior condition (n=8) recorded their intentions to engage in specific percentages of safety-related work behaviors before starting their shift for the day. In contrast, participants in a postbehavior condition (n=7) recorded their percentages of safety-related work behaviors after their shift for the day. RESULTS: During withdrawal (4 weeks), the miners did not complete any self-monitoring forms. Based on 10,905 behavioral observations, safety self-management was effective at increasing the frequency of safety-related behavior (p<.05). For the prebehavior condition, the mean percent safe score across three target behaviors increased 34.8% during intervention. Similarly, in the postbehavior condition, the mean percent safe score across three target behaviors increased 40.1% during intervention. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The results suggest that employees who work in relative isolation or have little oversight, compared to traditional industrial workers, may benefit from a process by which they can systematically observe themselves.